Maybe investors should question the dogma of “stocks for the long run.” History shows that a portfolio of bonds has outperformed stocks surprisingly often and for shockingly long periods.

That’s the intriguing argument in a new research paper by Edward McQuarrie, a retired business professor at Santa Clara University. Investors have long taken it as an article of faith that stocks have always beaten bonds—and always will—if you can just hang on long enough. Prof. McQuarrie’s research is a healthy reminder that this belief is wrong. His findings also show the limits and dangers of extrapolating from the past.

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